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U.S.-China trade truce lifts stocks, Turkish assets rally

Emerging market stocks began the second half of 2019 on a bright note on Monday as investors flocked to riskier assets after the United States and China agreed to resume trade talks, while the prospect of no U.S. sanctions on Turkey helped its markets outperform.

The MSCI’s index of developing world stocks climbed 0.5% to touch its highest level in nearly two-months, with Chinese stocks , rallying more than 2% on the thawing of U.S.-China trade tensions.

The temporary truce in the long-drawn trade war helped risk appetite, with the onshore Chinese yuan hitting a 10-day high against the dollar.

“There were some expectations that there would be some sort of truce in the trade talks, it just actually got confirmed following the G20 meeting,” said Jason Tuvey, senior economist, Capital Economics.

Tuvey, however, cautioned the truce could be temporary and further escalation is trade tensions was possible.

Other Asian currencies were more subdued, with the Korean won , Indian rupee and Taiwanese dollar dipping against a strong dollar. FRX/

Data showed factory activity shrank in most Asian countries in June as the simmering U.S.-China trade conflict put further strains on the region’s manufacturing sector.

The Turkish lira outshone emerging peers with a 1.8% jump after President Tayyip Erdogan said he had heard from Trump there would be no sanctions over Turkey’s purchase of Russian S-400 defence systems.

The lira, which had been hit by concerns over potential U.S. sanctions, rose to its highest level in a month to firm 5.6936 per dollar on the news and Turkey’s dollar-denominated bonds jumped. Its main BIST 100 stock index rose 2.4%, led by gains in bank stocks.

A jump in oil prices helped Russia’s rouble firm while Moscow-listed shares hit a fresh record high.

In East Europe, the Czech crown and the Polish zloty weakened against the euro, while the Hungarian forint held onto slight gains.

The Markit Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) showed Czech manufacturing business sentiment dropped to a near 10-year low in June, while another set showed contraction in Polish factory activity accelerated in June.


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